Poxymoron No. 7 (Q: “How many poxymora does it take to change a light bulb?” A: “Just one, but the light won’t work no matter how many times you try a dud-bulb.)
In this post I am staying with this week’s theme of poxymoron crime reduction initiatives (see the Bent Society Glossary of Terms).
Just because it is called Smartwater dos not necessarily mean that it is smart. As previous Bent Society posts have revealed, research suggests that thieves do not seem to be deterred in any way by the use of so called Smartwater in their neighbourhoods, towns and cities.
Smartwater sports
Crimes fluctuate at local, city, regional and national levels for a wide variety of reasons. These reasons will be explained in future posts – with reference to peer reviewed criminological research. In the meantime, be sceptical of property marking companies that claim their products are responsible for falling crime levels in the areas where it is used. Such claims are highly unlikely to be based on thorough scientific research, which always needs to take account of a crucial element known as “regression-to-the mean” and other rigorous criteria that are necessary in order to attribute an effect to a specific cause (Regression to the mean and these other factors will be explained in future posts).
My personal Smartwater moment
In early summer, a burglar kicked in the window of my flat after climbing up the fire escape and kicking through the laminated glass security screen (my local police got him by the way – he is up for trial soon – I’ll keep you posted), and stole my precious laptop. Two days later I received a telephone call from someone from [xxxxx].
The man – I can’t remember his name so I’ll call him Mr Unctuous [which is not at all a fair descripion of the real individual]– reminded me that I had been burgled and offered me some Smartwater, which he assured me would ward off evil burglars in the future. Now, knowing what I know, from my research (see earlier posts in the poxymoron series) that local burglars fleer in the face of Smartwater, I asked him exactly how Smartwater would help me.
“Well”, he replied with what seemed to me at least (perhaps I was still in shock) all the charm of a snake oil salesman who has scented another dupe, “You mark your property with Smartwater, put a sticker in your window, and then the burglars will not break in again.”
“So”, I asked “In my case the burglar entered my garden through a closed gate, went around the side of the house, climbed a 14 foot vertical fire-escape, saw my expensive laptop on my dining room table, then in broad daylight in front of elderly neighbours who witnessed the entire noisy episode, kicked an Edwardian sash window to death, broke the original plate glass to smithereens, then smashed his way through a second laminated glass security screen with such force that he propelled a large piece of reinforced glass some 10 feet into the room. Then he took my laptop, nothing else, and left. So please can you tell me exactly how Smartwater would have stopped that from happening? Are you saying that if he saw a Smartwater sticker on my window he would have said “Oh bugger” and simply climbed back down the fire escape empty handed?”
“Well,” Mr Untuous replied, in that particular case it would not have worked because he already climbed up the fire escape.”
‘So far so good,’ I thought, ‘an honest reply. But then he offered me Smartwater again saying that it would help to protect me from future burglaries. Confused by his logic, I decided to come out of the criminological closet and reveal myself. I told him that I’d recently conducted some research for his employer that revealed that local thieves took no notice of Smartwater whatsoever.
There was a strange silence on the phone. After about 5 seconds of this I asked: “Hello are you still there?”
What followed led me to believe that, like so many of us, the poor chap is an undiagnosed Bent Society victim:
“I don’t take any notice of research.” he said flatly, and sounding rather depressed now, “You can’t believe any of it. I studied statistics at university you know and they can be made to say anything.”
‘Indeed’ I thought ‘just look at the Smartwater website.’ But I kept my council, and asked a question instead: “I wonder can you tell me how many homes in [this area] have been ‘protected’ by Smartwater?”
Back into snake-oil selling mode his tone became optimistic once more. To be honest I’ve actually forgotten the precise number Mr Unctuous gave in his reply, but I know it was between 14 and 20 thousand homes, I think it was 19 thousand. “[X000]…, he said, “We’ve got burglars in the city on the run. once homes are protected by Smartwater they are never burgled again.”
“Wow [X000] …that’s a lot of money spent on Smartwater then. Exactly how many thieves have been prosecuted as a direct result of Smartwater being used in [this area]?”
There was that pause on the line again. When Mr Unctuous came back from wherever he had been he sounded depressed again: “Well the police got one, but for some reason they never prosecuted him. We don’t know why.”
“So you’ve marked up X000 properties in [this area], not one thief has been successfully prosecuted as a result, the prolific thieves that I interviewed say that Smartwater is a joke because it’s invisible and they can’t see it anyway and yet you say it’s working to reduce burglaries?”
“That’s the whole point, it’s meant to be invisible. That’s how it works.”
“Well I don’t think it can help me. Thanks anyway.”
“Ok thank you.”
I hung up.
……To be continued….
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8 comments:
I'm reading! Please do all write all the stuff you're promising us here...
Smartwater - schmartz water.
Not much use if you're not at home I know, but I have a Royal Marine Commando bayonet in my bedside cabinet just in case. Place a carving knife in the now deceased burglars hand and presto! self defence.
Hope I never have to try it....
The solution is obvious. They don't care about smart water because it's invisible. Perhaps the answer is a more overt crime prevention measure. Surely it would make more sense to spray paint your brand new 50" plasma telly with a grotesque design... not on the screen... no need to cut off your nose to spite your face, but it would surely reduce the resale value of the stolen goods. I'm glad I have two small destructive boys that make all consumer goods un-nickable, I write this on a monitor covered in tipp-ex, any suggestions on how to remove it gratefully accepted.
Joking aside, is this (sort of) the way to disrupt the market for stolen goods? You started off blogging about this Mike, with lots of lovely academic references, which I didn't follow as I'm sure they are far too wordy and complicated for me. I was looking forward to finding out your thoughts (simplified for us plebs), on market based crime reduction strategies, it would make a refreshing change from the usual left/right shit we normally get.
Anyway keep going, I may only be reader number 3 but it is very enjoyable and thought provoking.
So someone's actually making thousands of pounds from the taxpayer out of selling an invisible thing, that doesn't work. remind me who the real criminals are again??
We work with "Mr Unctuous" (but I don't do the Smartwater side of things). I think you're a little harsh on both him and Smartwater. He's only trying to do his job and help prevent people from being burgled. And Smartwater is very much like a weight-reduction "cure" - it can help as part of a calorie-controlled diet. It won't stop a determined burglar but it's another factor the offender has to think about. We know from our own analysis that Smartwater has an effect - but this could be due to the criminal not knowing exactly what it is and steering clear of those properties/items that display the Smartwater logo.
Your blog is an entertaining read (particularly knowing our colleague!) but it's very easy to pooh-pooh an initiative like this without giving a balanced argument. Oh well...
Assuming there's a deterrent effect, but no forensic use, is there any reason (beyond trademark infringement &c) not just to have a sticker claiming you've got it?
About Mr Unctuous, I've gone back and edited out all of his possible identity - on the grounds of common humanity.
Regarding whether Smart Water is in the least bit effective or not -only a properly conducted evaluation can hope to tell. What I do know is that "grey literature" research (the full report is currently with the community safety partnership and ACPO) with prolific theives in two areas where it is being used found that theives say it makes zero difference to what they steal or where they steal it from.
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