Unlike the near certainties regarding cause and effect that we have from laws discovered in the natural sciences, predicting the affairs of man is fraught with difficulties. So much so that when you get it right then you merely predicted the obvious, but when you get it wrong you are a naïve fool.
(1) An even more alienated youth, with fewer job prospects, coming from families with decades of long term unemployment.
(2) An end of unskilled manual labour paying a respectable living wage
(3) A cultural understanding that
(4) Global recession
(5) A more consumer driven society, with a proliferation of retail outlets unlike anything imagined in the 1980’s
(6) A major decline in two parent families
(7) A huge rise in the number of young people who feel that have nothing much to lose from joining the mob and don’t want to miss being in on the action.
(8) A withdrawal of police from the streets
(9) The growth of virtual societies where many hours are spent networking and gaming online
(10) Mobile phones, including unidentifiable pay-and-throw models
What might these changes predict regarding what will happen in the following days and weeks?
I think many young people will irrationally but very seriously believe that they have a real opportunity to overthrow society and take control of their destiny through confronting the law and law abiding citizens with violence and looting. If they possess weapons then they will be unable to think of a better time to use them than this ever presenting itself again.
The internet – Facebook, blog sites, web boards, instant messaging and Twitter will be used to command and control the criminal action, neutralise guilt, make martyrs of the arrested, incite crime and share modus operandi information at a national level.
We should, therefore, expect:
(a) a level of anarchy and brazen lack of fear of and respect for the police and emergency services that is unlike anything in living memory
(b) a much greater incidence of copycat rioting and looting than ever experienced in
(c) a huge number of serious woundings, arrests, and long prison spells as unfit youths with more bravado and size than physical ability find themselves relying upon weapons to back up their intentions with little chance of running far on their internet atrophied legs.
The abilities of the criminal justice system to pinpoint ringleaders and participants from their online and mobile telephony activities remains to be seen. And it is this unknown that will determine how long the trouble lasts.
BS Crew
4 comments:
We need to establish what is a riot and what is an uprising. Is it all about getting a free KFC and BMX? Or something deeper and dare I say more noble. Inarticulate youths who see a man shot in the back of the head whilst lying face down may get peeved.
Dear Ciaran
I suppose there could be some biblical "Nike for an eye" motivation going on. But don't you think the "peeved" would target the general police perps. of that alleged injustice before rather than after the looting of unrelated businesses is interrupted by the police? Did ambulance and fire crews shoot someone as well? Why only firebomb the cops AFTER they stopped your crew looting JD Sports in Nottingham?
Any deep and noble protest is very difficult to separate from nation wide copycat looting. How would you suggest we to do that?
BS
Dear B, Disparate targets and the fire brigade. I noticed that (v stupidly) ambulances & fire crews were attacked. I also noticed that ... plod were slow hand clapping the Home Sec a few weeks ago. What better way to punish than literally do nothing then after a few days say "Wot ahaht our pensions?" Oh armed cars, new. Like they did not expect this?;)
You were right about the weapons BS. Police in Nottingham are reported on the BBC local news to be shocked by the number of youths on the streets carrying weapons.
I see the yobs from the Meadows firebombed their police station in the usual 'who can out yob who' rivalry between them and the St Annes yobs. Next we should expect trouble from Snenton and Bulwell.
The trouble is that unless this is nipped in the bud these yobs will be clebrating online and encouraging each other on a nationwide basis. I think this is a new phenomenon. Like your good selves, I predict lower overall crime rates - because they are as you say addicted to virtual worlds - with summer holiday copy-cat wildfire civic unrest faciilitated by the very technology that otherwise keeps them indoors becomming a regualr national event. And as you say - the use of cars as weapons (Grand Theft Auto copycating) to kill peole (as happend last night) and knives etc because they do not have the physical ability to fight law abiding citizens head to head.
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